The funded status of the 100 largest corporate defined benefit pension plans improved by $4 billion during September, as measured by the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI). A decrease in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities led to an increase in plan liabilities during the period; however, pension assets increased by a greater amount due to strong monthly investment returns. As of September 30, the funded ratio rose to 106.5% from 106.3% at the end of August, and the funded status surplus increased to $80 billion. This marks the sixth consecutive month of improvement in the funded ratio.
The Milliman 100 PFI asset value rose to $1.317 trillion as of September 30, 2025. The market value of plan assets increased by $26 billion because of September’s robust 2.50% investment return. By comparison, the 2025 Milliman Pension Funding Study reported that the monthly expected investment return for FY2024 was 0.53% (6.53% annualized). The full results of the annual 2025 study can be found at www.milliman.com/pfs.
The combined plans’ projected benefit obligation rose by $22 billion during September, increasing the Milliman 100 PFI value to $1.237 trillion. The change resulted from a decline of 17 basis points (bps) in the monthly discount rate, to 5.36% for September from 5.53% in August. Discount rates have now fallen 23 bps since the beginning of 2025.
Highlights
| $ BILLION | FUNDED PERCENTAGE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MV | PBO | FUNDED STATUS | ||
| August | 1,291 | 1,215 | 77 | 106.3% |
| September | 1,317 | 1,237 | 80 | 106.5% |
| Monthly change | +26 | +22 | +4 | 0.2% |
| YTD Change | +53 | +17 | +36 | 2.9% |
Note: Numbers may not add up precisely due to rounding
Third-quarter summary
The quarter ending September 30, 2025, saw a net improvement in the PFI funded status, following on the heels of a strong second quarter. Plan assets grew by $34 billion during the period while plan liabilities grew by $18 billion. The quarterly investment return was a robust 4.14%, which had a significant impact on the funded status improvement. Meanwhile, discount rates declined by 16 bps, resulting in higher plan liabilities, which partially offset the investment gains. Overall, the net balance sheet impact was a funded status improvement of $16 billion. The funded status surplus grew to $80 billion by the end of the third quarter as the funded ratio of the Milliman 100 companies increased to 106.5% at the end of September from 105.3% at the end of June.
Over the last 12 months, from October 2024 to September 2025, the cumulative asset return for these pension plans has been 6.09%, and the Milliman 100 PFI funded status position has improved by $58 billion. The funded status gain has been the result of both strong asset performance and a net increase in discount rates over the 12-month period. The funded ratio of the Milliman 100 companies increased during that time, from 101.7% to 106.5%.
Figure 1: Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index — Pension surplus/deficit
Figure 2: Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index — Pension funded ratio
2025-2026 projections
If the Milliman 100 PFI companies were to achieve the expected 6.53% median asset return (as per the 2025 PFS), and if the current discount rate of 5.36% remains unchanged throughout 2025 and 2026, we forecast that the funded status of the surveyed plans would increase. The pension surplus is projected to be $86 billion (funded ratio of 107.0%) by the end of 2025 and $108 billion (funded ratio of 108.8%) by the end of 2026. For purposes of this forecast, we have assumed 2025 and 2026 aggregate annual contributions of $20 billion.
Under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 5.51% by the end of 2025 and 6.11% by the end of 2026) and annual asset returns of 10.53%, the funded ratio is projected to climb to 110% by the end of 2025 and 124% by the end of 2026. Under a pessimistic forecast with similar interest rate and asset movements (5.21% discount rate at the end of 2025 and 4.61% by the end of 2026 and 2.53% annual asset returns), the funded ratio is projected to decline to 104% by the end of 2025 and 95% by the end of 2026.
Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index - September 2025 (all dollar amounts in millions)
Pension asset and liability returns
About the Milliman 100 monthly Pension Funding Index
For the past 25 years, Milliman has conducted an annual study of the 100 largest defined benefit pension plans sponsored by U.S. public companies. The Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index projects the funded status for pension plans included in our study, reflecting the impact of market returns and interest rate changes on pension funded status, utilizing the actual reported asset values, liabilities, and asset allocations of the companies’ pension plans.
The results of the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index were based on the actual pension plan accounting information disclosed in the footnotes to the companies’ annual reports for the 2024 fiscal year and for previous fiscal years. This pension plan accounting disclosure information was summarized as part of the Milliman 2025 Pension Funding Study, which was published on April 30, 2025. In addition to providing the financial information on the funded status of U.S. qualified pension plans, the footnotes may also include figures for the companies’ nonqualified and foreign plans, both of which are often unfunded or subject to different funding standards than those for U.S. qualified pension plans. They do not represent the funded status of the companies’ U.S. qualified pension plans under ERISA.